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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Team Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a far greater change with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the series may see the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that change a-coming, rolling round the corner, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.